How did I get 10,000?

As Bob would call another "idiotic post", let's look at the 10,000 number I came up with in my previous post: NRA to make money off gun bill Just Wondering in the comments questioned my numbers.

I'm going to use numbers from the Iowa Department of Public Safety, the keeper of the data for gun permits in the state. In 2008 there were 29,601 non-professional permits issued with a population of 2,988,046 (Census Bureau figures), that gives us 9.91 permits per 1,000 citizens. Looking at county-by-county the median permits per 1,000 citizens is 12.43. Forty-nine counties are above that number and forty-nine are below.

Why look at this county-by-county? Because each county is unique with each sheriff issuing permits differently.

What if the number of permits increased only in those counties below either the median or average permits per 1,000 ratio? The counties above the median or average would stay the same.

Using the Median:
Those counties that fall below the average ratio of 9.91 permits per 1,000 citizens had 14,233 permits issued to a population of 2,341,500 = 6.08 per 1,000. Increase the permit ratio to the median ratio of 12.43 and we have 29,104 (rounded down). That gives us an increase of 14,871 (so my number is low).

Using average:
Those counties that fall below the average ratio of 9.91 permits per 1,000 citizens had 8,140 permits issued to a population of 1,800,224 = 4.52 per 1,000. Increase the permit ratio to the average ratio of 9.91 and we have 17,840 (rounded down). That increases the permits by 9,700 (my number is a little high)

I don't think my prediction of 10,000 additional permits is that far off. (Your mileage may vary). If anyone can come up with their own predictions, be my guest.

About that $100 - yeah, I pulled that out just as "what if?" and I clarified this in my post as well.

Some examples of class fees:

The range fee in Linn County is $25
Story County charges $35 for the class
Sioux and O'Brien Counties require attendance at a class at a local community college, $45

So averaging $35 per class, while small for each person, the aggregate could potentially be a good sum of money. Add in existing permit holders that may have to go through the training (Sioux county, regarding the training "This requirement may be waived on an application for renewal of a permit;"[emphasis mine]) and you have an additional 29,601 permit holders attending training.

Would the proposed classes be hosted by the NRA? Probably some.
NRA certified instructors would more than likely be involved in all of the classes (the wording of the bill leans towards this - and most police instructors are NRA certified). Would the state require additional certified instructors (most likely NRA certified)? Probably.

I'll stand by my statement that the NRA will be making money on this. We can argue over how much(and I've admitted that I don't know, and no one else does either). And I'll stand by my opinion that pushing a bill when you have a vested interest to make money (no matter who it is, or how much $ you make) is BS.